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PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

10-12  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 6:30 PM ET
Crisler Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

20-1  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Michigan)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

0.1%

Wolverines Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

PSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

MICH By 1-7 points

0.6%

MICH By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
53
PENN STATE
85
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
68
PENN STATE
75
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (-27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 PSU @ MICH 69 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 MICH @ PSU 74 - 72
Jan 27, 2025 PSU @ MICH 72 - 76
Mar 13, 2024 MICH @ PSU 57 - 66
Jan 7, 2024 MICH @ PSU 73 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +215.1% more
Michigan: 5.2 vs Penn State: 1.7
Rebounding (L5) +33.5% more
Michigan: 36.7 vs Penn State: 27.5
Turnovers (L5) +28.7% more
Michigan: 14.1 vs Penn State: 11.0
Steals (L5) +13.2% more
Penn State: 5.7 vs Michigan: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 53.0 69
MICH Score 85.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 35.5 52.0 / 10.0
Assists 15.0 / 13.9 31.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.2 / 1.7 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 47.7 61.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 84.1 88.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 27.5 44.0 / 21.0
Steals 5.0 / 5.7 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 11.0 9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
MICH Advantage
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
PSU
MICH
PSU
ML
78% 31-9
72% 23-9
63% 24-14
56% 18-14
ATS
78% 31-9
72% 23-9
63% 24-14
56% 18-14
TTL
57% 23-17
66% 21-11
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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