Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Stags @ Pioneers FAIR @ SHU

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

14-10  |  Road

92
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 7:00 PM ET
William H. Pitt Center
View Odds Details →

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

10-14  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
100%
📊
PIONEERS
0%
STAGS --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SACRED HEART
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Sacred Heart)
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 PioneersSHU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

27.4%

Pioneers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SHU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHU)

FAIR By 1-7 points

16.9%

FAIR By 8-14 points

6.8%

SHU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SHU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
65
FAIRFIELD
71
SACRED HEART
Simulated Score
70
FAIRFIELD
73
SACRED HEART
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pioneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pioneers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 SHU @ FAIR 68 - 78
Feb 5, 2026 FAIR @ SHU 92 - 87
Mar 11, 2025 FAIR @ SHU 58 - 71
Mar 2, 2025 FAIR @ SHU 62 - 83
Feb 8, 2025 SHU @ FAIR 77 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.4% more
Sacred Heart: 15.7 vs Fairfield: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5) +17.3%
Sacred Heart: 78.3% vs Fairfield: 61.1%
Turnovers (L5) +16.5% more
Sacred Heart: 11.4 vs Fairfield: 9.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Sacred Heart: 37.1% vs Fairfield: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 65.0 92
SHU Score 71.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 31.0 38.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.7 / 11.4 18.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 40.4 46.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 61.1 68.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 39.7 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.9 / 8.2 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 9.8 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
SHU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
SHU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHU
FAIR
SHU
FAIR
ML
61% 20-13
55% 18-15
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
ATS
76% 25-8
48% 16-17
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
TTL
58% 19-14
48% 16-17
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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