PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
28-15-12 | Road
5
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
32-18-6 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Arturs Silovs
#37 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs | None-None | 2.01 | 0.926 | -- |
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 4.22 | 0.871 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01 Ldr
GAA
4.22
0.926 Ldr
Save %
0.871
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
SABRES
100%
PENGUINS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
17.5%
PIT By 2-3 goals
37.2%
BUF By 1 goal
6.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BUF @ PIT
5 - 1
Feb 5, 2026
PIT @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 26, 2025
BUF @ PIT
2 - 4
Oct 3, 2025
BUF @ PIT
4 - 5
Oct 1, 2025
PIT @ BUF
5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+19.9% more
Pittsburgh: 22.0
vs
Buffalo: 17.6
Takeaways (L5)
+10.1% more
Pittsburgh: 6.3
vs
Buffalo: 5.7
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.8% more
Pittsburgh: 29.8
vs
Buffalo: 26.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.8%
Pittsburgh: 46.7%
vs
Buffalo: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
5
BUF Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.2 / 12.7
10.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
44.9 / 46.7
54.5 / 45.5
Hits
17.6 / 22.0
16.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
29.5 / 3.8
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.8 / 29.8
28.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
5.7 / 6.3
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PIT
BUF
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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