EAST TEXAS A&M
LIONSETAM
8-15 | Road
74
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
6-16 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
DEMONS
100%
LIONS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
EAST TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (East Texas A&M)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ETAM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETAM)
ETAM By 1-7 points
26.2%
ETAM By 8-14 points
25.3%
NWST By 1-7 points
15.3%
NWST By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
East Texas A&M
95
EAST TEXAS A&M
Northwestern State
88
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
East Texas A&M
73
EAST TEXAS A&M
Northwestern State
78
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Demons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.0
Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u143.0
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
NWST @ ETAM
48 - 52
Feb 4, 2026
ETAM @ NWST
74 - 68
Feb 1, 2025
NWST @ ETAM
50 - 72
Jan 11, 2025
ETAM @ NWST
67 - 75
Mar 10, 2024
ETAM @ NWST
69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.8% more
East Texas A&M: 3.8
vs
Northwestern State: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+24.4% more
East Texas A&M: 8.1
vs
Northwestern State: 6.1
Assists (L5)
+12.2% more
East Texas A&M: 14.3
vs
Northwestern State: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.1%
Northwestern State: 77.0%
vs
East Texas A&M: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ETAM Score
95.0
74
NWST Score
88.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 29.8
41.0 / 44.0
Assists
12.5 / 14.3
15.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.8
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 42.2
52.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 67.9
50.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
31.5 / 32.5
26.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.1 / 8.1
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 11.5
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETAM
Advantage
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETAM
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
ETAM
NWST
ETAM
ML
68%
21-10
52%
13-12
77%
23-7
62%
15-9
ATS
68%
21-10
56%
14-11
77%
23-7
62%
15-9
TTL
39%
12-19
68%
17-8
100%
30-0
100%
24-0
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