Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Runnin' Bulldogs LONG @ GWEB

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

12-12  |  Road

86
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Paul Porter Arena
View Odds Details →

GARDNER-WEBB

RUNNIN' BULLDOGSGWEB

3-20  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
📊
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS
0%
LANCERS --
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Gardner-Webb)
LancersLONG (-3.5) 0 Runnin' BulldogsGWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

11.5%

Runnin' Bulldogs Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GWEB -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GWEB)

LONG By 1-7 points

8.0%

LONG By 8-14 points

2.2%

GWEB By 1-7 points

20.1%

GWEB By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
LONGWOOD
86
GARDNER-WEBB
Simulated Score
69
LONGWOOD
73
GARDNER-WEBB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Runnin' Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Runnin' Bulldogs (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.0 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u148.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 LONG @ GWEB 86 - 66
Jan 21, 2026 GWEB @ LONG 56 - 91
Feb 19, 2025 GWEB @ LONG 77 - 90
Jan 29, 2025 LONG @ GWEB 87 - 92
Feb 29, 2024 LONG @ GWEB 69 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.1% more
Longwood: 3.1 vs Gardner-Webb: 2.1
Steals (L5) +26.4% more
Longwood: 8.5 vs Gardner-Webb: 6.2
Assists (L5) +22.2% more
Longwood: 10.9 vs Gardner-Webb: 8.5
Rebounding (L5) +15.0% more
Longwood: 37.3 vs Gardner-Webb: 31.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LONG Score 74.0 86
GWEB Score 86.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.0 / 31.2 30.0 / 40.0
Assists 8.5 / 10.9 8.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.1 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 45.2 47.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 63.5 / 70.1 60.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 37.3 29.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.5 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 16.1 18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
GWEB
4-29-0 (12.1%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
GWEB Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
GWEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GWEB
LONG
GWEB
LONG
ML
73% 22-8
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
ATS
73% 22-8
68% 21-10
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
TTL
53% 16-14
65% 20-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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