Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Knicks DEN @ NY

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

33-18  |  Road

127
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

32-18  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
NUGGETS --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

42.1%

Knicks Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

DEN By 1-7 points

23.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

12.2%

NY By 1-7 points

26.8%

NY By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
118
DENVER
120
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
108
DENVER
115
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knicks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knicks (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.5 Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 NY @ DEN 142 - 103
Feb 4, 2026 DEN @ NY 127 - 134
Jan 29, 2025 DEN @ NY 112 - 122
Nov 25, 2024 NY @ DEN 145 - 118
Mar 21, 2024 NY @ DEN 100 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.3% more
New York: 30.4 vs Denver: 24.7
Rebounding (L5) +16.5% more
New York: 49.0 vs Denver: 42.0
Steals (L5) +8.7% more
New York: 7.8 vs Denver: 7.2
Blocks (L5) +40.9% more
Denver: 6.4 vs New York: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 118.0 127
NY Score 120.0 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.3 / 41.3 36.0 / 26.0
Assists 30.4 / 24.7 28.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.8 / 6.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 47.7 50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 79.5 84.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 49.0 / 42.0 45.0 / 51.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.2 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 12.2 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
DEN
NY
DEN
ML
61% 114-72
54% 57-48
56% 57-45
55% 47-39
ATS
67% 124-62
63% 65-38-2
56% 57-45
55% 47-39
TTL
72% 133-53
54% 56-48-1
100% 102-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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