OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
40-11 | Road
106
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
33-16 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
SPURS
0%
THUNDER
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
OKC By 1-7 points
10.7%
OKC By 8-14 points
3.3%
SA By 1-7 points
23.0%
SA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
107
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
117
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
122
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o221.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u221.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.7% more
San Antonio: 6.5
vs
Oklahoma City: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+9.5% more
San Antonio: 13.8
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.6
Steals (L5)
+34.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.1
vs
San Antonio: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
Oklahoma City: 81.5%
vs
San Antonio: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
107.0
106
SA Score
117.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 35.2
33.0 / 40.0
Assists
26.7 / 27.0
26.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.5 / 4.5
8.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 48.5
45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 81.5
60.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
43.9 / 44.5
63.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.6 / 10.1
11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 12.6
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
60%
111-73
70%
80-34
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
107-76-1
73%
83-30-1
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
TTL
74%
134-47-3
67%
76-38
100%
105-0
100%
95-0
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