Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warhawks @ Monarchs ULM @ ODU

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

3-20  |  Road

85
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

7-16  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
📊
MONARCHS
0%
WARHAWKS --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Old Dominion)
WarhawksULM (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warhawks Cover

38.2%

Monarchs Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ODU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

ULM By 1-7 points

21.6%

ULM By 8-14 points

10.7%

ODU By 1-7 points

27.2%

ODU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
60
UL MONROE
63
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
67
UL MONROE
75
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monarchs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monarchs (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 ULM @ ODU 80 - 87
Feb 4, 2026 ULM @ ODU 85 - 79
Dec 21, 2024 ODU @ ULM 80 - 75
Jan 20, 2024 ULM @ ODU 80 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.8% more
Old Dominion: 3.0 vs UL Monroe: 2.1
Steals (L5) +18.9% more
Old Dominion: 6.5 vs UL Monroe: 5.5
Assists (L5) +8.9% more
Old Dominion: 12.0 vs UL Monroe: 11.0
Rebounding (L5) +8.3% more
Old Dominion: 35.7 vs UL Monroe: 33.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 60.0 85
ODU Score 63.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 30.0 30.0 / 15.0
Assists 12.0 / 11.0 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 38.9 42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 73.8 66.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 33.0 31.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.5 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 11.1 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
ODU Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
ODU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
ULM
ODU
ULM
ML
52% 17-16
50% 16-16
67% 22-11
70% 21-9
ATS
70% 23-10
78% 25-7
67% 22-11
70% 21-9
TTL
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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