SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
10-14 | Road
60
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
19-4 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
GAELS
0%
TOREROS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
USD By 1-7 points
6.8%
USD By 8-14 points
1.7%
SMC By 1-7 points
18.6%
SMC By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
87
SAN DIEGO
Saint Mary's
100
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
San Diego
63
SAN DIEGO
Saint Mary's
75
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+20.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
USD @ SMC
60 - 87
Jan 11, 2025
SMC @ USD
103 - 56
Feb 24, 2024
USD @ SMC
62 - 88
Jan 4, 2024
SMC @ USD
81 - 70
Feb 16, 2023
SMC @ USD
62 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.3%
Saint Mary's: 85.2%
vs
San Diego: 76.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Saint Mary's: 35.4%
vs
San Diego: 32.8%
Steals (L5)
+44.7% more
San Diego: 9.1
vs
Saint Mary's: 5.0
Blocks (L5)
+43.1% more
San Diego: 4.2
vs
Saint Mary's: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
87.0
60
SMC Score
100.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 32.8
52.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.5 / 16.4
19.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.2
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 44.0
53.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
85.2 / 76.9
80.0 / 38.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 40.1
41.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.0 / 9.1
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 14.7
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
USD
SMC
USD
ML
56%
18-14
58%
19-14
82%
23-5
70%
23-10
ATS
62%
20-12
55%
18-15
83%
24-5
70%
23-10
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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