Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Dons LMU @ SF

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

11-13  |  Road

84
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 10:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

14-10  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
DONS
0%
LIONS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (San Francisco)
LionsLMU (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

0.1%

Dons Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SF -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

LMU By 1-7 points

0.1%

LMU By 8-14 points

0.0%

SF By 1-7 points

0.8%

SF By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
60
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
91
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
68
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
75
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dons (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 LMU @ SF 84 - 75
Jan 8, 2026 SF @ LMU 82 - 84
Feb 8, 2025 SF @ LMU 72 - 66
Dec 28, 2024 LMU @ SF 55 - 70
Feb 17, 2024 SF @ LMU 82 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.8% more
San Francisco: 14.6 vs Loyola Marymount: 12.5
Rebounding (L5) +14.3% more
San Francisco: 35.3 vs Loyola Marymount: 30.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
San Francisco: 39.1% vs Loyola Marymount: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
San Francisco: 46.3% vs Loyola Marymount: 42.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LMU Score 60.0 84
SF Score 91.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 29.7 29.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.6 / 12.5 7.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 42.8 32.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 72.5 88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 30.9 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.5 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 16.3 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LMU Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
LMU
SF
LMU
ML
39% 13-20
53% 17-15
64% 21-12
50% 16-16
ATS
42% 14-19
47% 15-17
64% 21-12
50% 16-16
TTL
73% 24-9
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 12 hours ago
Kentucky Fans Weigh In on Senate Bill That Could Transform Colle…
wkyt 5 days ago
Jess Sims Conquers Hay Bale Toss on College GameDay in Iowa
awfulannouncing 5 days, 6 hours ago
Lee University Basketball Alum Todd Amburgy: A Legacy of Defense…
chattanoogan 5 days, 18 hours ago