SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
10-13 | Road
67
UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
10-13 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
SPARTANS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UNC Asheville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)
UPST By 1-7 points
18.6%
UPST By 8-14 points
8.0%
UNCA By 1-7 points
27.2%
UNCA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
South Carolina Upstate
68
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
UNC Asheville
73
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
South Carolina Upstate
72
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
UNC Asheville
78
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
UPST @ UNCA
67 - 76
Jan 21, 2026
UNCA @ UPST
83 - 69
Feb 12, 2025
UNCA @ UPST
92 - 85
Jan 15, 2025
UPST @ UNCA
92 - 93
Feb 10, 2024
UNCA @ UPST
77 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.5%
UNC Asheville: 73.9%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 59.4%
Blocks (L5)
+13.6% more
UNC Asheville: 4.8
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 4.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
UNC Asheville: 35.5%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
UNC Asheville: 43.8%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UPST Score
68.0
67
UNCA Score
73.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 32.6
35.0 / 26.0
Assists
10.8 / 11.6
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.3
6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 42.2
53.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
73.9 / 59.4
63.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 35.1
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.7
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 13.4
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UNCA
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UNCA
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
UPST
UNCA
UPST
ML
53%
16-14
61%
19-12
63%
19-11
83%
25-5
ATS
57%
17-13
61%
19-12
63%
19-11
83%
25-5
TTL
60%
18-12
52%
16-15
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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