Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Rockets BOS @ HOU

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

32-18  |  Road

114
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

31-17  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
CELTICS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

42.1%

Rockets Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

BOS By 1-7 points

26.8%

BOS By 8-14 points

18.6%

HOU By 1-7 points

23.0%

HOU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
119
BOSTON
117
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
104
BOSTON
116
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o211.0 Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u211.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 BOS @ HOU 114 - 93
Nov 1, 2025 HOU @ BOS 128 - 101
Jan 27, 2025 HOU @ BOS 114 - 112
Jan 3, 2025 BOS @ HOU 109 - 86
Jan 21, 2024 BOS @ HOU 116 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Boston: 46.4% vs Houston: 44.0%
Blocks (L5) +78.0% more
Houston: 7.2 vs Boston: 4.1
Steals (L5) +38.1% more
Houston: 8.8 vs Boston: 6.4
Turnovers (L5) +21.5% more
Houston: 13.0 vs Boston: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 119.0 114
HOU Score 117.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 34.5 37.0 / 37.0
Assists 25.2 / 25.2 16.0 / 26.0
Blocks 7.2 / 4.1 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 46.4 41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 69.2 64.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 53.5 / 47.3 38.0 / 57.0
Steals 8.8 / 6.4 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 10.7 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BOS
HOU
BOS
ML
61% 69-44
57% 61-46
59% 51-35
53% 47-41
ATS
62% 70-43
59% 61-43-3
59% 51-35
53% 47-41
TTL
51% 58-55
56% 60-47
100% 86-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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