Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Thundering Herd USM @ MRSH

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

12-12  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

14-8  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Marshall)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

21.2%

Thundering Herd Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

USM By 1-7 points

13.7%

USM By 8-14 points

4.8%

MRSH By 1-7 points

25.3%

MRSH By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
86
SOUTHERN MISS
94
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
72
SOUTHERN MISS
78
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 USM @ MRSH 77 - 81
Dec 21, 2024 MRSH @ USM 66 - 68
Jan 27, 2024 USM @ MRSH 67 - 83
Jan 12, 2023 USM @ MRSH 67 - 89
Feb 21, 2022 MRSH @ USM 74 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +89.0% more
Marshall: 16.1 vs Southern Miss: 8.5
Blocks (L5) +72.3% more
Marshall: 6.6 vs Southern Miss: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +14.7% more
Marshall: 38.2 vs Southern Miss: 33.3
Steals (L5) +14.0% more
Marshall: 7.3 vs Southern Miss: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 86.0 77
MRSH Score 94.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 25.6 35.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.1 / 8.5 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 6.6 / 3.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 42.3 54.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 74.0 68.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 33.3 30.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.4 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 11.3 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
USM
MRSH
USM
ML
70% 21-9
53% 18-16
62% 18-11
73% 24-9
ATS
70% 21-9
59% 20-14
62% 18-11
74% 25-9
TTL
50% 15-15
68% 23-11
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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