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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

19-29  |  Road

129
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-39  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
KINGS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

46.0%

Kings Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MEM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

16.9%

SAC By 1-7 points

24.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
120
MEMPHIS
119
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
111
MEMPHIS
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Nov 20, 2025 SAC @ MEM 96 - 137
Mar 17, 2025 MEM @ SAC 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Memphis: 29.0 vs Sacramento: 21.7
Steals (L5) +9.5% more
Memphis: 7.5 vs Sacramento: 6.8
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Memphis: 47.2% vs Sacramento: 44.8%
Blocks (L5) +46.3% more
Sacramento: 5.9 vs Memphis: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 120.0 129
SAC Score 119.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 35.2 31.0 / 44.0
Assists 21.7 / 29.0 29.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 47.2 45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 86.3 / 81.1 86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 43.6 46.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.5 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 14.0 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MEM
SAC
MEM
ML
55% 55-45
57% 59-44
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
TTL
58% 57-42-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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