Home / NHL Projections NHL / Blues @ Stars STL @ DAL

ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

20-27-9  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 9:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

33-14-9  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Jordan Binnington
GOALTENDER

Jordan Binnington

#50 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jordan Binnington None-None 5.03 0.821 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 4.00 0.778 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.03 GAA Ldr 4.00
0.821 Ldr Save % 0.778
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
100%
📊
STARS
0%
BLUES --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
BluesSTL (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blues Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

STL By 1 goal

12.1%

STL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
DALLAS
Simulated Score
2
ST. LOUIS
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 0
Feb 4, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 5
Jan 27, 2026 DAL @ STL 4 - 3
Jan 23, 2026 STL @ DAL 2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025 DAL @ STL 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +37.9% more
Dallas: 17.2 vs St. Louis: 12.4
Faceoff % (L5) +7.4%
Dallas: 55.3% vs St. Louis: 47.9%
Takeaways (L5) +15.1% more
St. Louis: 5.6 vs Dallas: 4.7
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.7% more
St. Louis: 30.4 vs Dallas: 27.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 4
DAL Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.2 / 12.4 18.0 / 10.0
Faceoff % 55.3 / 47.9 53.2 / 46.8
Hits 21.8 / 22.5 24.0 / 28.0
Power Play % 31.4 / 30.5 33.3 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 27.7 / 30.4 28.0 / 18.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 5.6 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
STL
DAL
STL
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
50% 1-1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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