MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
31-17-8 | Road
5
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
22-25-8 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 1.00 | 0.973 | -- |
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 4.40 | 0.846 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
4.40
0.973 Ldr
Save %
0.846
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
0%
JETS
100%
CANADIENS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WPG +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)
MTL By 1 goal
19.7%
MTL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
WPG By 1 goal
12.1%
WPG By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
MTL @ WPG
5 - 1
Dec 3, 2025
WPG @ MTL
2 - 3
Jan 28, 2025
WPG @ MTL
4 - 1
Dec 14, 2024
MTL @ WPG
2 - 4
Dec 18, 2023
MTL @ WPG
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+37.4% more
Montreal: 5.4
vs
Winnipeg: 3.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+26.4% more
Montreal: 16.6
vs
Winnipeg: 12.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.0%
Montreal: 56.6%
vs
Winnipeg: 48.6%
Power Play % (L5)
+7.6%
Montreal: 21.5%
vs
Winnipeg: 13.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
3.0
5
WPG Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.2 / 16.6
16.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
48.6 / 56.6
45.0 / 55.0
Hits
24.2 / 21.7
15.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
13.8 / 21.5
25.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
24.3 / 25.8
37.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
3.4 / 5.4
1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
MTL
WPG
MTL
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
100%
4-0
100%
3-0
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…
Red Wings' Power Play Woes Sink Them Against Jets