Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mean Green @ Owls UNT @ RICE

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

12-10  |  Road

83
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Tudor Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

RICE

OWLSRICE

9-13  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
0%
📊
OWLS
100%
MEAN GREEN --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Texas)
Mean GreenUNT (-3.5) 0 OwlsRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mean Green Cover

69.1%

Owls Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNT -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNT By 8-14 points

23.0%

RICE By 1-7 points

18.6%

RICE By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
91
NORTH TEXAS
86
RICE
Simulated Score
70
NORTH TEXAS
62
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mean Green Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mean Green (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Mean Green (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 RICE @ UNT 58 - 62
Feb 4, 2026 UNT @ RICE 83 - 86
Feb 11, 2025 UNT @ RICE 67 - 61
Jan 8, 2025 RICE @ UNT 59 - 81
Mar 9, 2024 UNT @ RICE 71 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.7% more
North Texas: 8.6 vs Rice: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
North Texas: 69.1% vs Rice: 67.4%
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
Rice: 11.3 vs North Texas: 9.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.9%
Rice: 37.7% vs North Texas: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 91.0 83
RICE Score 86.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 23.9 31.0 / 17.0
Assists 11.7 / 11.1 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.5 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 39.8 40.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 67.4 / 69.1 69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 33.5 57.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.1 / 8.6 9.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 9.6 22.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
RICE
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
RICE Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
UNT
RICE
UNT
ML
53% 16-14
70% 23-10
53% 16-14
59% 19-13
ATS
60% 18-12
52% 17-16
53% 16-14
59% 19-13
TTL
77% 23-7
67% 22-11
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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