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TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

13-11  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

14-10  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
BOBCATS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Georgia Southern)
BobcatsTXST (-3.5) 0 EaglesGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

1.8%

Eagles Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GASO -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

TXST By 1-7 points

1.4%

TXST By 8-14 points

0.2%

GASO By 1-7 points

6.8%

GASO By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
TEXAS STATE
88
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
68
TEXAS STATE
72
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 TXST @ GASO 77 - 71
Dec 21, 2024 GASO @ TXST 61 - 83
Feb 22, 2024 TXST @ GASO 76 - 84
Jan 26, 2023 GASO @ TXST 67 - 70
Feb 20, 2020 GASO @ TXST 55 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.3% more
Georgia Southern: 3.3 vs Texas State: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +18.1% more
Georgia Southern: 11.8 vs Texas State: 10.0
Assists (L5) +24.7% more
Texas State: 12.7 vs Georgia Southern: 9.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.9% more
Texas State: 37.6 vs Georgia Southern: 32.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 67.0 77
GASO Score 88.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 36.6 30.0 / 21.0
Assists 9.6 / 12.7 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.7 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 43.5 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 75.6 73.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 37.6 25.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.0 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
TXST
GASO
TXST
ML
56% 20-16
42% 13-18
58% 19-14
83% 25-5
ATS
64% 23-13
48% 15-16
58% 19-14
84% 26-5
TTL
61% 22-14
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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