YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
11-12 | Road
90
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
14-9 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
MASTODONS
100%
PENGUINS
--
MASTODONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Youngstown State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YSU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)
YSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
YSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
PFW By 1-7 points
8.0%
PFW By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
77
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Purdue Fort Wayne
65
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
76
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Purdue Fort Wayne
82
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mastodons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Mastodons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
YSU @ PFW
90 - 61
Jan 7, 2026
PFW @ YSU
71 - 69
Mar 6, 2025
PFW @ YSU
67 - 72
Feb 12, 2025
PFW @ YSU
71 - 93
Jan 4, 2025
YSU @ PFW
81 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+41.7% more
Youngstown State: 13.9
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 8.1
Rebounding (L5)
+11.1% more
Youngstown State: 33.8
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 30.1
Blocks (L5)
+9.4% more
Youngstown State: 4.5
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Youngstown State: 80.7%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 76.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
77.0
90
PFW Score
65.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.2 / 34.2
26.0 / 57.0
Assists
14.7 / 14.2
6.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.5
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 45.7
46.0 / 66.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 80.7
73.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
30.1 / 33.8
18.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.6
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 13.9
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
PFW
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
PFW
Advantage
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
YSU
PFW
YSU
ML
59%
19-13
57%
17-13
74%
23-8
67%
20-10
ATS
62%
20-12
47%
14-16
74%
23-8
67%
20-10
TTL
59%
19-13
60%
18-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0