Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Catamounts @ Spartans WCU @ UNCG

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

8-13  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 6:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

8-15  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
CATAMOUNTS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Western Carolina)
CatamountsWCU (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Catamounts Cover

99.2%

Spartans Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WCU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)

WCU By 1-7 points

4.0%

WCU By 8-14 points

12.2%

UNCG By 1-7 points

0.6%

UNCG By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
97
WESTERN CAROLINA
73
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
69
WESTERN CAROLINA
72
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Catamounts Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Catamounts (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 UNCG @ WCU 77 - 91
Feb 4, 2026 WCU @ UNCG 78 - 81
Feb 8, 2025 WCU @ UNCG 70 - 74
Jan 18, 2025 UNCG @ WCU 83 - 55
Feb 21, 2024 WCU @ UNCG 65 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.6% more
Western Carolina: 2.8 vs UNC Greensboro: 1.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Western Carolina: 33.5% vs UNC Greensboro: 29.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Western Carolina: 44.8% vs UNC Greensboro: 42.8%
Steals (L5) +13.2% more
UNC Greensboro: 4.7 vs Western Carolina: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WCU Score 97.0 78
UNCG Score 73.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 33.5 45.0 / 37.0
Assists 12.4 / 12.4 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.4 / 2.8 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 44.8 44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 65.8 / 67.2 89.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 35.6 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 4.7 / 4.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 8.9 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
WCU
UNCG
WCU
ML
38% 13-21
63% 19-11
71% 24-10
76% 22-7
ATS
44% 15-19
73% 22-8
71% 24-10
77% 23-7
TTL
76% 26-8
67% 20-10
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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