ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
18-6 | Road
77
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
11-12 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
JACKRABBITS
100%
TOMMIES
--
JACKRABBITS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
STMN By 1-7 points
23.0%
STMN By 8-14 points
27.2%
SDST By 1-7 points
10.7%
SDST By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
94
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
South Dakota State
84
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
74
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
South Dakota State
78
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tommies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
SDST @ STMN
67 - 80
Feb 4, 2026
STMN @ SDST
77 - 62
Jan 22, 2026
SDST @ STMN
69 - 74
Feb 6, 2025
STMN @ SDST
86 - 102
Jan 8, 2025
SDST @ STMN
72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.8% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 20.6
vs
South Dakota State: 16.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.2%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 74.2%
vs
South Dakota State: 62.0%
Steals (L5)
+9.3% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 7.5
vs
South Dakota State: 6.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 52.4%
vs
South Dakota State: 49.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
94.0
77
SDST Score
84.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 40.6
19.0 / 37.0
Assists
16.1 / 20.6
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.2
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 52.4
44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
62.0 / 74.2
73.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 36.4
35.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.5
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 11.4
9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
STMN
SDST
STMN
ML
75%
24-8
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
64%
21-12
ATS
78%
25-7
70%
23-10
53%
17-15
64%
21-12
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
