Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Crimson Tide TA&M @ ALA

TEXAS A&M

AGGIESTA&M

17-4  |  Road

97
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

14-7  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
100%
AGGIES --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AggiesTA&M (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

42.1%

Crimson Tide Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

TA&M By 1-7 points

26.8%

TA&M By 8-14 points

18.6%

ALA By 1-7 points

23.0%

ALA By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
82
TEXAS A&M
80
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
72
TEXAS A&M
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u180.0 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u180.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 TA&M @ ALA 97 - 100
Jan 11, 2025 ALA @ TA&M 94 - 88
Feb 17, 2024 TA&M @ ALA 75 - 100
Mar 12, 2023 TA&M @ ALA 63 - 82
Mar 4, 2023 ALA @ TA&M 61 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.7% more
Texas A&M: 7.1 vs Alabama: 5.3
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Texas A&M: 18.5 vs Alabama: 15.0
Free Throw % (L5) +12.1%
Texas A&M: 86.1% vs Alabama: 74.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Texas A&M: 38.3% vs Alabama: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 82.0 97
ALA Score 80.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 38.3 33.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.0 / 18.5 19.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.9 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 45.4 45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 86.1 69.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 40.5 44.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.1 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +2.0
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
TA&M
ALA
TA&M
ML
63% 22-13
67% 20-10
58% 19-14
54% 15-13
ATS
60% 21-14
67% 20-10
58% 19-14
54% 15-13
TTL
63% 22-13
70% 21-9
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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