Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sun Devils @ Utes ASU @ UTAH

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

11-11  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Jon M. Huntsman Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTESUTAH

9-12  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
UTES
0%
SUN DEVILS --
UTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Utah)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 UtesUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

0.0%

Utes Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

ASU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ASU By 8-14 points

0.0%

UTAH By 1-7 points

0.5%

UTAH By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
62
ARIZONA STATE
95
UTAH
Simulated Score
67
ARIZONA STATE
74
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Utes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utes (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Utes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 UTAH @ ASU 60 - 73
Feb 4, 2026 ASU @ UTAH 71 - 63
Mar 1, 2025 ASU @ UTAH 73 - 99
Mar 13, 2024 ASU @ UTAH 57 - 90
Feb 10, 2024 ASU @ UTAH 85 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Utah: 74.2% vs Arizona State: 66.7%
Steals (L5) +36.3% more
Arizona State: 7.6 vs Utah: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +33.7% more
Arizona State: 5.3 vs Utah: 3.5
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Arizona State: 11.9 vs Utah: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 62.0 71
UTAH Score 95.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 36.9 33.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.0 / 14.6 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 5.3 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.8 39.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 66.7 62.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 31.1 37.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.9 / 7.6 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 11.9 14.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
UTAH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
ASU
UTAH
ASU
ML
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
67% 20-10
68% 21-10
ATS
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
67% 20-10
68% 21-10
TTL
41% 13-19
64% 21-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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