Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Patriots DUQ @ GMU

DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

12-10  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

20-2  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
DUKES --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (George Mason)
DukesDUQ (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

42.1%

Patriots Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GMU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

DUQ By 1-7 points

23.0%

DUQ By 8-14 points

12.2%

GMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

GMU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
61
DUQUESNE
63
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
68
DUQUESNE
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 DUQ @ GMU 71 - 65
Mar 1, 2025 GMU @ DUQ 68 - 85
Mar 2, 2024 DUQ @ GMU 59 - 51
Feb 8, 2023 GMU @ DUQ 52 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
George Mason: 49.6% vs Duquesne: 43.3%
Steals (L5) +25.0% more
Duquesne: 7.2 vs George Mason: 5.4
Assists (L5) +23.7% more
Duquesne: 16.2 vs George Mason: 12.3
Blocks (L5) +18.3% more
Duquesne: 2.8 vs George Mason: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 61.0 71
GMU Score 63.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.7 / 39.1 39.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.3 / 16.2 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 43.3 49.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 74.3 53.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 36.4 30.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.4 / 7.2 2.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 12.4 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
DUQ
GMU
DUQ
ML
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
58% 18-13
ATS
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
58% 18-13
TTL
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Keyshawn Hall Wins Temporary Restraining Order, Cleared to Suit …
saturdaydownsouth 6 days, 7 hours ago
UMass Lowell Coach Pat Duquette Confident in Rebuilt Roster Ahea…
berkshireeagle 1 month, 1 week ago
Duquesne's Orthodox Jewish Forward Embraces 'Jewish Rodman' Nick…
yahoo 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Outpouring of support following death of Jordan Devey — Utah nat…
deseret 2 months, 1 week ago
'It’s a gift and a privilege': Milford's Hill now a Patriots che…
yahoo 2 months, 4 weeks ago