Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Mountaineers USA @ APP

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

16-6  |  Road

57
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 6:30 PM ET
Holmes Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

15-9  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
JAGUARS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (App State)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

4.5%

Mountaineers Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

USA By 1-7 points

3.3%

USA By 8-14 points

0.6%

APP By 1-7 points

12.2%

APP By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
51
SOUTH ALABAMA
68
APP STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH ALABAMA
72
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 USA @ APP 57 - 65
Jan 4, 2024 APP @ USA 91 - 84
Mar 2, 2023 APP @ USA 61 - 68
Feb 11, 2023 APP @ USA 57 - 74
Feb 19, 2022 USA @ APP 51 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.8% more
App State: 3.4 vs South Alabama: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +83.8% more
App State: 10.4 vs South Alabama: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5) +19.2%
App State: 76.1% vs South Alabama: 57.0%
Rebounding (L5) +13.1% more
App State: 39.9 vs South Alabama: 35.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 51.0 57
APP Score 68.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 29.4 28.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.4 / 11.5 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 46.0 40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 57.0 67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 35.3 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.1 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 5.7 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
APP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
USA
APP
USA
ML
62% 20-12
47% 15-17
59% 19-13
57% 17-13
ATS
59% 19-13
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
57% 17-13
TTL
69% 22-10
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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