Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Pilots GONZ @ PORT

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

22-1  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 10:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

10-14  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
PILOTS
100%
BULLDOGS --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Pilots Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PORT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

GONZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

GONZ By 8-14 points

16.9%

PORT By 1-7 points

24.3%

PORT By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
100
GONZAGA
99
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
68
GONZAGA
92
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pilots (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 PORT @ GONZ 48 - 89
Feb 4, 2026 GONZ @ PORT 80 - 87
Jan 25, 2025 GONZ @ PORT 105 - 62
Jan 2, 2025 PORT @ GONZ 50 - 81
Feb 22, 2024 GONZ @ PORT 86 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.0% more
Gonzaga: 9.2 vs Portland: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +37.6% more
Gonzaga: 3.4 vs Portland: 2.1
Rebounding (L5) +20.6% more
Gonzaga: 39.9 vs Portland: 31.7
Assists (L5) +16.6% more
Gonzaga: 14.3 vs Portland: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 100.0 80
PORT Score 99.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 29.7 44.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.9 / 14.3 22.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 47.5 59.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 62.1 80.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 39.9 32.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.2 / 9.2 2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 9.4 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
99%TICKETS1%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
GONZ
PORT
GONZ
ML
48% 16-17
71% 25-10
82% 27-6
69% 20-9
ATS
67% 22-11
69% 24-11
82% 28-6
69% 20-9
TTL
55% 18-15
57% 20-15
100% 34-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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