Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Friars BUT @ PROV

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

13-9  |  Road

87
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Amica Mutual Pavilion
View Odds Details →

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

9-13  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
FRIARS
0%
BULLDOGS --
FRIARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Providence)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 FriarsPROV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

1.8%

Friars Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

BUT By 1-7 points

1.4%

BUT By 8-14 points

0.2%

PROV By 1-7 points

6.8%

PROV By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
BUTLER
96
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
68
BUTLER
72
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Friars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Friars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Friars (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Friars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o169.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u169.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 PROV @ BUT 91 - 81
Feb 4, 2026 BUT @ PROV 87 - 97
Dec 13, 2025 PROV @ BUT 110 - 113
Mar 12, 2025 BUT @ PROV 75 - 69
Feb 8, 2025 PROV @ BUT 81 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +165.7% more
Providence: 3.6 vs Butler: 1.4
Turnovers (L5) +38.5% more
Providence: 12.3 vs Butler: 8.9
Rebounding (L5) +18.5% more
Providence: 37.8 vs Butler: 31.9
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Providence: 47.8% vs Butler: 42.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 75.0 87
PROV Score 96.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 34.5 32.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.0 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 42.8 47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 74.4 67.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 31.9 46.0 / 36.0
Steals 3.0 / 5.9 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 8.9 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
PROV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
BUT
PROV
BUT
ML
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
65% 20-11
ATS
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
65% 20-11
TTL
44% 14-18
50% 16-16
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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