Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Cardinals ND @ LOU

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

11-11  |  Road

65
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
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LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

15-6  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
FIGHTING IRISH --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Louisville)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

9.7%

Cardinals Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

ND By 1-7 points

6.8%

ND By 8-14 points

1.7%

LOU By 1-7 points

18.6%

LOU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
64
NOTRE DAME
77
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
68
NOTRE DAME
72
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 ND @ LOU 65 - 76
Feb 16, 2025 LOU @ ND 75 - 60
Feb 21, 2024 ND @ LOU 72 - 50
Jan 28, 2023 LOU @ ND 62 - 76
Feb 9, 2022 LOU @ ND 57 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +86.5% more
Louisville: 7.3 vs Notre Dame: 3.9
Assists (L5) +43.2% more
Louisville: 16.7 vs Notre Dame: 11.7
Blocks (L5) +34.8% more
Louisville: 2.8 vs Notre Dame: 2.0
Turnovers (L5) +16.6% more
Louisville: 11.6 vs Notre Dame: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 64.0 65
LOU Score 77.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 30.9 23.0 / 41.0
Assists 16.7 / 11.7 19.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 45.2 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 70.1 72.0 / 43.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 33.6 46.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.3 / 3.9 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 9.9 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
LOU Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
ND
LOU
ND
ML
63% 22-13
65% 20-11
71% 24-10
77% 24-7
ATS
71% 25-10
55% 17-14
71% 24-10
77% 24-7
TTL
63% 22-13
68% 21-10
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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