GREEN BAY
PHOENIXGB
12-12 | Road
87
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
14-10 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
0%
NORSE
100%
PHOENIX
--
NORSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
GB By 1-7 points
27.2%
GB By 8-14 points
20.1%
NKU By 1-7 points
21.6%
NKU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Green Bay
82
GREEN BAY
Northern Kentucky
79
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Green Bay
68
GREEN BAY
Northern Kentucky
72
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phoenix
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Norse (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Norse (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
NKU @ GB
96 - 76
Feb 4, 2026
GB @ NKU
87 - 84
Jan 11, 2026
NKU @ GB
78 - 80
Feb 14, 2025
NKU @ GB
73 - 60
Jan 4, 2025
GB @ NKU
60 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.7%
Green Bay: 82.9%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 67.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+14.9%
Green Bay: 41.6%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 26.7%
Assists (L5)
+8.7% more
Green Bay: 15.0
vs
Northern Kentucky: 13.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Green Bay: 48.1%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GB Score
82.0
87
NKU Score
79.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.7 / 41.6
33.0 / 39.0
Assists
13.7 / 15.0
16.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.1
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 48.1
45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
67.1 / 82.9
64.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 27.7
29.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.3 / 4.1
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 9.8
8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.1
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
GB
NKU
GB
ML
53%
18-16
48%
16-17
65%
22-12
67%
22-11
ATS
56%
19-15
52%
17-16
65%
22-12
67%
22-11
TTL
68%
23-11
58%
19-14
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
