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MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

19-3  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Williams Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

10-12  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
GOLDEN GOPHERS
100%
SPARTANS --
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Michigan State)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 Golden GophersMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

95.5%

Golden Gophers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

MSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

MSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

MINN By 1-7 points

3.3%

MINN By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MICHIGAN STATE
57
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
68
MICHIGAN STATE
75
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Gophers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Golden Gophers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 MSU @ MINN 73 - 76
Jan 28, 2025 MINN @ MSU 51 - 73
Dec 4, 2024 MSU @ MINN 90 - 72
Mar 14, 2024 MINN @ MSU 67 - 77
Feb 6, 2024 MSU @ MINN 56 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +22.1% more
Michigan State: 38.2 vs Minnesota: 29.7
Blocks (L5) +14.7% more
Michigan State: 4.3 vs Minnesota: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
Michigan State: 12.6 vs Minnesota: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5) +9.1%
Michigan State: 79.6% vs Minnesota: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 74.0 73
MINN Score 57.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 30.5 48.0 / 38.0
Assists 16.1 / 17.2 17.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.3 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 47.4 48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 79.6 71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 29.7 / 38.2 23.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.8 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 12.6 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
MINN
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
MINN
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
MSU
MINN
MSU
ML
48% 16-17
71% 25-10
71% 22-9
61% 20-13
ATS
55% 18-15
71% 25-10
71% 22-9
61% 20-13
TTL
52% 17-16
49% 17-18
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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