UTEP
MINERSUTEP
8-14 | Road
66
SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
15-7 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
MINERS
100%
BEARKATS
0%
MINERS
--
BEARKATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Sam Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SHSU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)
UTEP By 1-7 points
4.0%
UTEP By 8-14 points
0.8%
SHSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
SHSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UTEP
68
UTEP
Sam Houston
84
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
UTEP
68
UTEP
Sam Houston
72
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bearkats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearkats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bearkats (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Bearkats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
UTEP @ SHSU
66 - 70
Mar 11, 2025
SHSU @ UTEP
65 - 79
Mar 6, 2025
UTEP @ SHSU
87 - 89
Jan 4, 2025
SHSU @ UTEP
72 - 81
Mar 15, 2024
UTEP @ SHSU
65 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+17.5% more
Sam Houston: 36.1
vs
UTEP: 30.7
Blocks (L5)
+16.2% more
Sam Houston: 2.9
vs
UTEP: 2.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.8%
Sam Houston: 50.4%
vs
UTEP: 39.7%
Steals (L5)
+22.6% more
UTEP: 8.6
vs
Sam Houston: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score
68.0
66
SHSU Score
84.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 38.4
30.0 / 18.0
Assists
13.7 / 13.1
14.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.5
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 39.7
34.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
64.3 / 76.9
78.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 30.7
50.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.6
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 9.6
12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
12-15-1
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -1.2
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
UTEP
SHSU
UTEP
ML
55%
18-15
70%
21-9
74%
23-8
72%
21-8
ATS
64%
21-12
57%
17-13
74%
23-8
73%
22-8
TTL
48%
16-17
60%
18-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
