ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
24-27 | Road
127
MIAMI
HEATMIA
27-24 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ATL By 1-7 points
18.6%
ATL By 8-14 points
8.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Miami
123
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
106
ATLANTA
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o237.0
Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.1% more
Miami: 32.9
vs
Atlanta: 26.3
Rebounding (L5)
+20.6% more
Miami: 51.1
vs
Atlanta: 42.4
Turnovers (L5)
+14.8% more
Miami: 13.7
vs
Atlanta: 11.9
Steals (L5)
+9.0% more
Miami: 10.4
vs
Atlanta: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
118.0
127
MIA Score
123.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 38.4
25.0 / 42.0
Assists
32.9 / 26.3
25.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.8
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 45.2
44.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 78.4
88.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
51.1 / 42.4
53.0 / 47.0
Steals
10.4 / 9.5
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 11.9
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
46-50
50%
52-52
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
55-48-1
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
57-39
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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