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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

31-18  |  Road

110
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-30  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
CELTICS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

78.8%

Mavericks Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

25.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

26.2%

DAL By 1-7 points

13.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
118
BOSTON
110
DALLAS
Simulated Score
114
BOSTON
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o223.0 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u223.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 DAL @ BOS 100 - 120
Feb 3, 2026 BOS @ DAL 110 - 100
Feb 6, 2025 DAL @ BOS 127 - 120
Jan 25, 2025 BOS @ DAL 122 - 107
Jun 17, 2024 DAL @ BOS 88 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
Boston: 73.8% vs Dallas: 70.7%
Blocks (L5) +25.2% more
Dallas: 5.1 vs Boston: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +14.6% more
Dallas: 12.6 vs Boston: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 118.0 110
DAL Score 110.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 35.3 28.0 / 33.0
Assists 23.0 / 24.3 21.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.1 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 45.1 42.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 73.8 77.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 48.4 / 47.5 49.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.1 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 11.0 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BOS
DAL
BOS
ML
62% 63-39
57% 61-46
54% 44-37
53% 47-41
ATS
67% 68-34
59% 61-43-3
54% 44-37
53% 47-41
TTL
59% 60-41-1
56% 60-47
100% 81-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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