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ORLANDO

MAGICORL

25-23  |  Road

92
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

39-11  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
📊
THUNDER
100%
MAGIC --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

46.0%

Thunder Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

ORL By 1-7 points

26.2%

ORL By 8-14 points

16.9%

OKC By 1-7 points

24.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
121
ORLANDO
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
115
ORLANDO
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Magic Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Magic (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o221.0 Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u221.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 OKC @ ORL 113 - 108
Feb 3, 2026 ORL @ OKC 92 - 128
Dec 19, 2024 OKC @ ORL 105 - 99
Nov 4, 2024 ORL @ OKC 86 - 102
Feb 13, 2024 OKC @ ORL 127 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Orlando: 26.6 vs Oklahoma City: 24.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Orlando: 37.5% vs Oklahoma City: 35.8%
Blocks (L5) +89.1% more
Oklahoma City: 6.3 vs Orlando: 3.3
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Oklahoma City: 40.7 vs Orlando: 37.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 121.0 92
OKC Score 120.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 37.5 34.0 / 32.0
Assists 24.0 / 26.6 33.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.3 / 3.3 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 45.9 52.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 83.7 / 84.1 77.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 37.3 52.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.1 / 9.5 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 12.9 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
ORL
OKC
ORL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 65-42
48% 46-49
56% 51-40
ATS
73% 83-30-1
64% 68-38-1
48% 46-49
56% 51-40
TTL
67% 76-38
57% 61-46
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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