PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
28-15-11 | Road
4
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
30-21-5 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Solovyov
#7 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Solovyov | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 3.98 | 0.886 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.98
--
Save %
0.886
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
PENGUINS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
PIT By 1 goal
6.6%
PIT By 2-3 goals
3.7%
NYI By 1 goal
17.5%
NYI By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PIT @ NYI
8 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
PIT @ NYI
4 - 5
Oct 9, 2025
NYI @ PIT
3 - 4
Mar 18, 2025
NYI @ PIT
4 - 2
Dec 29, 2024
NYI @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.3%
New York: 52.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 47.8%
Power Play % (L5)
+2.5%
New York: 8.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.6%
Takeaways (L5)
+26.8% more
Pittsburgh: 5.5
vs
New York: 4.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+9.1% more
Pittsburgh: 14.0
vs
New York: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
4
NYI Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.7 / 14.0
12.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
52.1 / 47.8
55.4 / 44.6
Hits
19.1 / 20.5
22.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
811.0 / 564.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.4 / 27.1
23.0 / 35.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 5.5
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
PIT
NYI
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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