BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
32-18-5 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
35-14-4 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 3.73 | 0.886 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.83 | 0.885 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.73
GAA
Ldr 2.83
0.886 Ldr
Save %
0.885
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
SABRES
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
BUF By 1 goal
6.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
3.7%
TB By 1 goal
17.5%
TB By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Sabres (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 6, 2026
TB @ BUF
2 - 4
Mar 8, 2026
TB @ BUF
7 - 8
Feb 28, 2026
BUF @ TB
6 - 2
Feb 3, 2026
BUF @ TB
3 - 4
Apr 13, 2025
BUF @ TB
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+33.0% more
Tampa Bay: 36.3
vs
Buffalo: 27.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+10.5%
Tampa Bay: 53.3%
vs
Buffalo: 42.8%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+18.4% more
Buffalo: 14.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.0
3
TB Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.1 / 14.9
10.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
53.3 / 42.8
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
19.4 / 19.9
26.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
27.1 / 27.6
50.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
36.3 / 27.3
35.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 4.0
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BUF
TB
BUF
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
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