DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
33-17 | Road
121
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
36-12 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
PISTONS
0%
NUGGETS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DEN By 1-7 points
18.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
8.0%
DET By 1-7 points
27.2%
DET By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
117
DENVER
Detroit
122
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
Detroit
122
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
DEN @ DET
121 - 124
Jan 27, 2026
DET @ DEN
109 - 107
Feb 28, 2025
DEN @ DET
134 - 119
Dec 28, 2024
DET @ DEN
121 - 134
Jan 7, 2024
DET @ DEN
114 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+79.9% more
Detroit: 13.2
vs
Denver: 7.3
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
Detroit: 29.4
vs
Denver: 27.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Detroit: 77.8%
vs
Denver: 76.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+12.0% more
Denver: 13.3
vs
Detroit: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
117.0
121
DET Score
122.0
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 45.4
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
29.4 / 27.0
27.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.6
4.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 49.0
46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 76.2
87.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 41.6
43.0 / 43.0
Steals
13.2 / 7.3
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.3
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
DEN
DET
DEN
ML
55%
64-53
54%
57-48
49%
47-49
55%
47-39
ATS
53%
60-54-3
63%
65-38-2
49%
47-49
55%
47-39
TTL
60%
70-46-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
96-0
100%
86-0
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