Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Skyhawks LR @ UTM

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

9-13  |  Road

52
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 8:30 PM ET
Kathleen and Tom Elam Center
View Odds Details →

UT MARTIN

SKYHAWKSUTM

17-5  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
SKYHAWKS
0%
TROJANS --
SKYHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UT MARTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (UT Martin)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 SkyhawksUTM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

15.9%

Skyhawks Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTM)

LR By 1-7 points

10.7%

LR By 8-14 points

3.3%

UTM By 1-7 points

23.0%

UTM By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
LITTLE ROCK
67
UT MARTIN
Simulated Score
72
LITTLE ROCK
75
UT MARTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Skyhawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Skyhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Skyhawks (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Skyhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 UTM @ LR 65 - 67
Feb 3, 2026 LR @ UTM 52 - 55
Mar 6, 2025 UTM @ LR 77 - 82
Feb 1, 2025 UTM @ LR 57 - 75
Jan 2, 2025 LR @ UTM 57 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.5% more
UT Martin: 14.6 vs Little Rock: 10.1
Rebounding (L5) +40.7% more
UT Martin: 40.9 vs Little Rock: 29.1
Assists (L5) +27.4% more
UT Martin: 16.1 vs Little Rock: 12.6
Blocks (L5) +22.8% more
UT Martin: 5.0 vs Little Rock: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 57.0 52
UTM Score 67.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 35.6 28.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.1 / 12.6 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.0 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 45.1 38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 81.9 50.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 40.9 / 29.1 33.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.2 / 8.5 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 10.1 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
UTM Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
UTM Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -8.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTM
LR
UTM
LR
ML
69% 22-10
52% 16-15
69% 20-9
68% 17-8
ATS
56% 18-14
45% 14-17
69% 20-9
68% 17-8
TTL
44% 14-18
58% 18-13
100% 29-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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