Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Flyers SBU @ DAY

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

13-9  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 7:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

14-8  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
BONNIES --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Dayton)
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

2.3%

Flyers Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

SBU By 1-7 points

1.7%

SBU By 8-14 points

0.3%

DAY By 1-7 points

8.0%

DAY By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
ST. BONAVENTURE
88
DAYTON
Simulated Score
69
ST. BONAVENTURE
76
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 SBU @ DAY 63 - 68
Feb 3, 2026 SBU @ DAY 70 - 72
Jan 28, 2025 DAY @ SBU 53 - 75
Feb 2, 2024 SBU @ DAY 71 - 76
Feb 4, 2023 DAY @ SBU 59 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.4% more
Dayton: 15.6 vs St. Bonaventure: 10.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
Dayton: 78.1% vs St. Bonaventure: 70.0%
Assists (L5) +17.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 17.5 vs Dayton: 14.4
Steals (L5) +14.5% more
St. Bonaventure: 8.6 vs Dayton: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 68.0 70
DAY Score 88.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 40.2 32.0 / 21.0
Assists 14.4 / 17.5 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 49.2 41.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 70.0 85.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 29.4 / 29.4 27.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.6 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 10.3 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
SBU
DAY
SBU
ML
65% 24-13
59% 20-14
64% 23-13
61% 20-13
ATS
68% 25-12
50% 17-17
64% 23-13
61% 20-13
TTL
57% 21-16
38% 13-21
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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