Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Falcons BALL @ BGSU

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

7-14  |  Road

52
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Stroh Center
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

13-9  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
CARDINALS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

42.1%

Falcons Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

BALL By 1-7 points

26.8%

BALL By 8-14 points

18.6%

BGSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

BGSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
86
BALL STATE
84
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
70
BALL STATE
75
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 BALL @ BGSU 52 - 77
Mar 1, 2025 BALL @ BGSU 52 - 61
Jan 11, 2025 BGSU @ BALL 69 - 91
Mar 8, 2024 BALL @ BGSU 70 - 80
Jan 30, 2024 BGSU @ BALL 81 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Ball State: 71.1% vs Bowling Green: 64.1%
Blocks (L5) +94.6% more
Bowling Green: 4.7 vs Ball State: 2.4
Assists (L5) +24.7% more
Bowling Green: 12.0 vs Ball State: 9.6
Rebounding (L5) +17.4% more
Bowling Green: 36.5 vs Ball State: 31.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 86.0 52
BGSU Score 84.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 27.2 50.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.0 / 9.6 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.7 / 2.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 39.3 56.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 64.1 / 71.1 93.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 31.1 38.0 / 21.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.6 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.1 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
BGSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
BALL
BGSU
BALL
ML
66% 21-11
43% 13-17
56% 18-14
62% 18-11
ATS
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
56% 18-14
62% 18-11
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 15-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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