Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Lopes AF @ GCU

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-18  |  Road

57
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

14-7  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
LOPES
0%
FALCONS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Grand Canyon)
FalconsAF (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

6.7%

Lopes Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

AF By 1-7 points

4.8%

AF By 8-14 points

1.1%

GCU By 1-7 points

15.3%

GCU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
58
AIR FORCE
73
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
61
AIR FORCE
78
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lopes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 GCU @ AF 86 - 60
Feb 3, 2026 AF @ GCU 57 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +121.0% more
Grand Canyon: 5.6 vs Air Force: 2.5
Steals (L5) +43.7% more
Grand Canyon: 6.3 vs Air Force: 4.4
Rebounding (L5) +25.7% more
Grand Canyon: 35.6 vs Air Force: 28.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
Grand Canyon: 76.8% vs Air Force: 69.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AF Score 58.0 57
GCU Score 73.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 31.7 30.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.3 / 11.4 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 40.0 52.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 69.4 48.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 28.3 36.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.4 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 15.0 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
AF
GCU
AF
ML
66% 21-11
81% 26-6
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
ATS
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
TTL
44% 14-18
69% 22-10
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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