NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
16-6 | Road
87
BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
13-9 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
100%
BRONCOS
0%
WOLF PACK
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boise State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)
NEV By 1-7 points
24.3%
NEV By 8-14 points
13.7%
BOIS By 1-7 points
26.2%
BOIS By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
71
NEVADA
Boise State
72
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
Nevada
65
NEVADA
Boise State
70
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncos (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
NEV @ BOIS
87 - 91
Dec 20, 2025
BOIS @ NEV
66 - 81
Feb 22, 2025
BOIS @ NEV
70 - 69
Jan 29, 2025
NEV @ BOIS
56 - 66
Mar 5, 2024
NEV @ BOIS
76 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+9.4% more
Boise State: 9.8
vs
Nevada: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Boise State: 77.1%
vs
Nevada: 75.4%
Blocks (L5)
+55.4% more
Nevada: 3.8
vs
Boise State: 1.7
Steals (L5)
+15.8% more
Nevada: 6.0
vs
Boise State: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
71.0
87
BOIS Score
72.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 46.9
32.0 / 42.0
Assists
16.6 / 15.9
12.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.7 / 3.8
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 47.2
52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
77.1 / 75.4
77.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 36.2
35.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.0
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 9.0
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
BOIS
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
BOIS
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
NEV
BOIS
NEV
ML
50%
16-16
62%
23-14
61%
19-12
73%
27-10
ATS
50%
16-16
73%
27-10
61%
19-12
73%
27-10
TTL
56%
18-14
49%
18-19
100%
31-0
100%
37-0
Contextual Game News
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