SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
9-13 | Road
54
ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
15-7 | Home
50
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
100%
REDBIRDS
0%
SALUKIS
--
REDBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Illinois State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
SIU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SIU By 8-14 points
0.0%
ILST By 1-7 points
0.1%
ILST By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Illinois
60
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Illinois State
100
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
Southern Illinois
68
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Illinois State
65
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Salukis
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Salukis (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
SIU @ ILST
54 - 50
Dec 18, 2025
ILST @ SIU
75 - 68
Feb 25, 2025
ILST @ SIU
79 - 88
Jan 5, 2025
SIU @ ILST
54 - 85
Feb 10, 2024
ILST @ SIU
66 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+15.4% more
Illinois State: 12.5
vs
Southern Illinois: 10.8
Rebounding (L5)
+15.3% more
Illinois State: 37.4
vs
Southern Illinois: 32.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.3%
Illinois State: 72.6%
vs
Southern Illinois: 64.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Illinois State: 45.1%
vs
Southern Illinois: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIU Score
60.0
54
ILST Score
100.0
50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 35.8
27.0 / 9.0
Assists
10.9 / 13.2
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 43.1
32.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 64.3
60.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 32.4
35.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.9 / 8.5
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 10.8
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
SIU
ILST
SIU
ML
42%
15-21
53%
17-15
71%
24-10
47%
15-17
ATS
58%
21-15
56%
18-14
71%
24-10
47%
15-17
TTL
58%
21-15
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0