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UNLV

REBELSUNLV

10-11  |  Road

96
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 11:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

10-11  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
REBELS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UNLV)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

90.3%

Bulldogs Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNLV -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UNLV By 1-7 points

18.6%

UNLV By 8-14 points

26.8%

FRES By 1-7 points

6.8%

FRES By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
72
UNLV
59
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
68
UNLV
72
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 UNLV @ FRES 96 - 98
Dec 20, 2025 FRES @ UNLV 72 - 84
Feb 15, 2025 UNLV @ FRES 52 - 51
Dec 28, 2024 FRES @ UNLV 77 - 87
Feb 14, 2024 UNLV @ FRES 67 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.3% more
UNLV: 3.8 vs Fresno State: 3.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
UNLV: 45.4% vs Fresno State: 40.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
UNLV: 36.3% vs Fresno State: 32.1%
Rebounding (L5) +17.6% more
Fresno State: 36.2 vs UNLV: 30.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 72.0 96
FRES Score 59.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 36.3 53.0 / 39.0
Assists 12.4 / 12.4 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.8 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 45.4 59.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 75.4 73.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 30.8 23.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.3 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 12.2 15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
UNLV
FRES
UNLV
ML
59% 19-13
50% 17-17
74% 23-8
59% 20-14
ATS
75% 24-8
65% 22-12
74% 23-8
59% 20-14
TTL
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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