Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Flashes @ Rockets KENT @ TOL

KENT STATE

GOLDEN FLASHESKENT

16-6  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Savage Arena
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

12-10  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN FLASHES
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
GOLDEN FLASHES --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Toledo)
Golden FlashesKENT (-3.5) 0 RocketsTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Flashes Cover

0.5%

Rockets Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

KENT By 1-7 points

0.4%

KENT By 8-14 points

0.0%

TOL By 1-7 points

2.7%

TOL By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
80
KENT STATE
106
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
72
KENT STATE
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 KENT @ TOL 75 - 72
Jan 16, 2026 TOL @ KENT 84 - 87
Feb 25, 2025 TOL @ KENT 65 - 105
Jan 21, 2025 KENT @ TOL 83 - 64
Mar 14, 2024 KENT @ TOL 67 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +36.5% more
Toledo: 8.1 vs Kent State: 5.9
Blocks (L5) +35.7% more
Toledo: 4.2 vs Kent State: 3.1
Assists (L5) +35.3% more
Toledo: 15.5 vs Kent State: 11.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +15.9%
Toledo: 39.0% vs Kent State: 23.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 80.0 75
TOL Score 106.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 23.1 30.0 / 34.0
Assists 15.5 / 11.5 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.1 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 37.7 44.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 82.7 / 71.8 80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 48.0 38.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.1 / 5.9 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 16.0 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
TOL
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.6
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
KENT
TOL
KENT
ML
48% 16-17
53% 18-16
61% 20-13
65% 22-12
ATS
48% 16-17
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
65% 22-12
TTL
64% 21-12
44% 15-19
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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