PITTSBURGH
PANTHERSPITT
9-13 | Road
47
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
18-3 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
PANTHERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
PITT By 1-7 points
16.9%
PITT By 8-14 points
6.8%
UVA By 1-7 points
26.8%
UVA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
74
PITTSBURGH
Virginia
80
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
61
PITTSBURGH
Virginia
64
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
PITT @ UVA
47 - 67
Feb 3, 2025
UVA @ PITT
73 - 57
Feb 13, 2024
PITT @ UVA
74 - 63
Jan 3, 2023
UVA @ PITT
65 - 68
Jan 19, 2022
UVA @ PITT
66 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+31.0% more
Virginia: 14.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.6%
Virginia: 75.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 61.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Virginia: 45.0%
vs
Pittsburgh: 39.2%
Steals (L5)
+14.1% more
Pittsburgh: 6.0
vs
Virginia: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PITT Score
74.0
47
UVA Score
80.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 28.5
35.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.9 / 11.4
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.5
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 39.2
44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
75.1 / 61.5
44.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 37.8
38.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.2 / 6.0
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 11.2
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
PITT
UVA
PITT
ML
67%
24-12
58%
19-14
72%
26-10
45%
15-18
ATS
75%
27-9
64%
21-12
72%
26-10
45%
15-18
TTL
53%
19-17
61%
20-13
100%
36-0
100%
33-0
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