MCNEESE
COWBOYSMCN
18-4 | Road
60
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
19-3 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
COWBOYS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
MCN By 1-7 points
16.9%
MCN By 8-14 points
6.8%
SFA By 1-7 points
26.8%
SFA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
McNeese
85
MCNEESE
Stephen F. Austin
91
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
McNeese
70
MCNEESE
Stephen F. Austin
76
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.0
Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u143.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
MCN @ SFA
76 - 59
Feb 2, 2026
MCN @ SFA
60 - 67
Jan 5, 2026
SFA @ MCN
64 - 66
Mar 3, 2025
MCN @ SFA
95 - 64
Jan 20, 2025
SFA @ MCN
59 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+14.2% more
Stephen F. Austin: 13.6
vs
McNeese: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
Stephen F. Austin: 42.5%
vs
McNeese: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Stephen F. Austin: 48.8%
vs
McNeese: 43.5%
Blocks (L5)
+44.3% more
McNeese: 5.4
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MCN Score
85.0
60
SFA Score
91.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.5 / 33.0
36.0 / 22.0
Assists
13.6 / 11.9
9.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.4
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 43.5
37.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 80.6
80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
34.3 / 34.6
32.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.8 / 9.8
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 9.3
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
SFA
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
MCN
SFA
MCN
ML
59%
17-12
67%
22-11
79%
23-6
88%
28-4
ATS
59%
17-12
76%
25-8
79%
23-6
88%
28-4
TTL
62%
18-11
42%
14-19
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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