Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Pacers HOU @ IND

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

30-17  |  Road

118
FINAL
Mon, Feb 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

13-36  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
ROCKETS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

46.0%

Pacers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

IND By 1-7 points

24.3%

IND By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
105
HOUSTON
104
INDIANA
Simulated Score
110
HOUSTON
115
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u218.5 Loss
Proj Total: 209.0
D
Sim u218.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 HOU @ IND 118 - 114
Dec 29, 2025 IND @ HOU 119 - 126
Mar 4, 2025 HOU @ IND 102 - 115
Nov 20, 2024 IND @ HOU 113 - 130
Feb 6, 2024 HOU @ IND 129 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.2% more
Houston: 7.8 vs Indiana: 4.1
Steals (L5) +27.5% more
Houston: 9.7 vs Indiana: 7.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.1% more
Houston: 52.2 vs Indiana: 46.4
Turnovers (L5) +39.9% more
Indiana: 16.0 vs Houston: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 105.0 118
IND Score 104.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 36.8 46.0 / 32.0
Assists 29.8 / 27.3 33.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.1 / 7.8 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 43.0 49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 71.6 76.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 46.4 / 52.2 33.0 / 56.0
Steals 7.1 / 9.7 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 11.4 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
HOU
IND
HOU
ML
48% 47-50
61% 69-44
54% 45-38
59% 51-35
ATS
59% 57-40
62% 70-43
54% 45-38
59% 51-35
TTL
54% 52-45
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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