Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Hornets NO @ CHA

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

13-38  |  Road

95
FINAL
Mon, Feb 2 • 3:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

22-28  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
HORNETS
0%
PELICANS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Charlotte)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

0.6%

Hornets Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)

NO By 1-7 points

0.5%

NO By 8-14 points

0.1%

CHA By 1-7 points

3.3%

CHA By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
103
NEW ORLEANS
128
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
105
NEW ORLEANS
118
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hornets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hornets (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 NO @ CHA 95 - 102
Nov 4, 2025 CHA @ NO 112 - 116
Mar 30, 2025 CHA @ NO 94 - 98
Jan 25, 2025 NO @ CHA 92 - 123
Jan 17, 2024 CHA @ NO 112 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Charlotte: 14.8 vs New Orleans: 11.8
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Charlotte: 28.7 vs New Orleans: 23.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Charlotte: 40.5% vs New Orleans: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
Charlotte: 87.0% vs New Orleans: 80.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 103.0 95
CHA Score 128.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 32.3 24.0 / 32.0
Assists 28.7 / 23.9 16.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.9 / 8.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 43.4 40.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 87.0 / 80.8 81.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 48.0 / 47.4 59.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.5 / 8.9 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 11.8 17.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
NO
CHA
NO
ML
61% 60-39
62% 98-61
48% 40-44
58% 48-35
ATS
60% 59-40
68% 107-51-1
48% 40-44
58% 48-35
TTL
58% 57-42
75% 119-40
100% 84-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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