BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
31-18-5 | Road
5
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
28-23-3 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 3.00 | 0.929 | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00
GAA
--
0.929
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
PANTHERS
0%
SABRES
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
BUF By 1 goal
2.8%
BUF By 2-3 goals
1.2%
FLA By 1 goal
12.1%
FLA By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
1
BUFFALO
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
BUF @ FLA
3 - 2
Feb 2, 2026
BUF @ FLA
5 - 3
Jan 12, 2026
FLA @ BUF
4 - 3
Oct 18, 2025
FLA @ BUF
0 - 3
Apr 12, 2025
BUF @ FLA
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+36.6% more
Florida: 25.1
vs
Buffalo: 18.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.1%
Florida: 46.7%
vs
Buffalo: 39.6%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+32.9% more
Buffalo: 12.3
vs
Florida: 8.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.5% more
Buffalo: 30.9
vs
Florida: 26.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
1.0
5
FLA Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
8.2 / 12.3
13.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
46.7 / 39.6
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
25.1 / 18.4
22.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
10.7 / 24.7
25.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
26.1 / 30.9
41.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 5.0
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
BUF
FLA
BUF
ML
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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